Retail bellwether Next and foam producer association Europur have demonstrated the impact the Iran war is having on business.
The chain says the Iran war will cost it £47m in higher costs – its previous forecast was £15m – and it will lift prices in response: by 0.6% in the UK and by 8% in some non-European markets.
It says UK sales grew by 4.4% in the past quarter (ended 2 May) – helped by higher gull price sales – and again raised its full-year profit forecast.
While companies have already seen prices rises across foam, such as upholstery, bedding and underlay, Europor says ‘even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen tomorrow, the global disruption to logistics means the market would be unlikely to normalise before late 2026.’
It says the problem is not production capacity, but ‘the combined impact of feedstock cost inflation, shipping disruptions, force majeure declarations, and the near-total withdrawal of insurance has fundamentally altered cost structures and availability.
‘Raw material supply for the industry across Europe is now entering a critical phase. Fundamentally, there is no global shortage of production capacity: however, the ability to obtain and transport raw materials, and to manufacture polyols, TDI and MDI, is severely constrained. The most critical products at present are polyether polyols, due to shortages in propylene oxide supply, compounded by European plant closures in 2025 and outages in the US.
‘As foam producers face significant increases in raw material costs and struggle to secure sufficient volumes to meet demand, the situation is progressively affecting downstream markets.’
